Rafael Nadal will lose his top ranking on Monday whether he wins the Wimbledon final or not. However winning the title would keep the race for top spot close.
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Rafael Nadal has already lost the number one position on the men's tour as Novak Djokovic, thanks in large part to his massive winning streak to start the 2011 season, will become number one on Monday when the rankings update. This is a fact regardless of who wins the men's final on Sunday afternoon (14:00 London time).
But despite pre-ordained rankings following the Wimbledon final the championship match is still important for Rafa in order to regain the top ranking. Should Nadal fail to defend his Wimbledon title the world number one will have a much harder time climbing back into top spot as Djokovic would have a significant lead.
Heading into the final on Sunday the two players are seperated by just 65 ranking points: Nadal has 12,070 and Djokovic has 12,005.
Here's the ranking scenarios for both outcomes of the men's final at Wimbledon on Sunday.
If Nadal wins
1. Novak Djokovic, 12,485 ranking points
2. Rafael Nadal, 12,070 ranking points
If Djokovic wins
1. Novak Djokovic, 13,285 ranking points
2. Rafael Nadal, 11,270 ranking points
If Nadal wins the title he will be within striking range of catching Djokovic soon with semi-realistic outcomes from the Montreal Masters in August leading back to Nadal being top ranked.
However if Djokovic wins the title at Wimbledon his stay on top of the men's tour could be a lengthy one as a lead of 2,000 ranking points would look very safe especially in consideration of the fact that Djokovic's best surface is the hard court surface, the surface that nearly all tournaments will be played on for the balance of the season following Wimbledon (there are some minor grass and clay court tournaments).
Nadal does look great to win Wimbledon however as the two-time champion has beaten better grass courters than Djokovic before. Nadal has three Wimbledon victories over Andy Murray, he has a win in the final of Wimbledon 2008 over Roger Federer, and Nadal has a career grass court win over Andy Roddick (Queen's Club).
The highest ranked player Djokovic has ever beaten at the All England Club remains Tommy Robredo, a player who was ranked eighth when Djokovic beat him back in 2006.
Nadal trailing Djokovic by about 400 ranking points looks like the more realistic scenario immediately following Wimbledon with the world number one needing to do some work in Toronto and Cincinnati in order to catch the Serb ahead of Flushing Meadows.
However Djokovic remains undefeated on the hard court surface in 2011.
Even if he only has a slim lead over Nadal following Wimbledon, Djokovic is more likely to increase that lead over the balance of the season than he is to lose that lead.
The Serb has titles this year from the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Dubai, and those results imply that the Serb will be crushing all in his path when the Montreal Masters, the Cincinnati Masters, and the 2011 US Open come around, not to mention the Shanghai Masters, the Paris Masters, and the World Tour Finals after Flushing Meadows.
Djokovic does not hold an active title in any of those tournaments right now meaning he has tremendous room for growth following Wimbledon.