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Roger Federer's quarter at Wimbledon 2010 - Value is on Tomas Berdych, Feliciano Lopez, and Jurgen Melzer

Federer's odds have stayed short despite poor form since winning the 2010 Australian Open.

Roger Federer, it could be argued, does not have many apparent challengers in his quarter although the scare by Alejandro Falla on Monday pretty much refutes that position.  Falla could have eliminated Federer in the first round at the All England Club on day 1 simply by holding serve but instead the Swiss Maestro fought back to win a tough first round match in 5 sets.

Federer now has a draw to the quarters that almost looks phony as he has Ilija Bozoljac in the second round, either Arnaud Clement or Peter Luczak in third round, and then maybe a date with Feliciano Lopez in the 4th round.

With Bozoljac we have a 24 year old who has never won a Grand Slam second round match in either singles or doubles - someone who ought to be easy pickings for Federer.  With Clement and Luczak we have two players in their 30s, one of which had never played a singles match at the All England Club before Monday and another, Clement, who is 32 years old and who has gone out in the first or second round of a Grand Slam in 15 of his last 16 matches.

Looking ahead to Federer's possible 4th round match is tough because there is so little grass court talent in that section of the draw that it's near impossible to figure out who Federer is going to play but it will be one of these four should he survive: Victor Troiki, Feliciano Lopez, Jurgen Melzer, or Ricardas Berankis.

Berankis is making his Slam debut, Troiki and Lopez are terrible Slam unachievers, and the same could almost be said about Melzer except that someone could retort with his recent French Open semifinal appearance.  Slightly redeeming, Lopez has two Wimbledon quarterfinal appearances and he or the on-form Melzer may be able to up-end Federer.

On the bottom section of Federer's quarter one finds Davydenko who is a dream to play against on grass and Tomas Berdych - a serious and very credible threat to Federer making the semis.

Here are the betting odds to win Federer's quarter with bet365:

1.  Roger Federer -600 (1/6)
2.  Tomas Berdych +500 (5/1)
3.  Nikolay Davydenko +1600
4.  Benjamin Becker +2500
5.  Feliciano Lopez +3300
6.  Denis Istomin +3300
7.  Jurgen Melzer +4000

As far as true odds go, I think this is more accurate:

1.  Tomas Berdych +250
2.  Roger Federer +375
3.  Nikolay Davydenk +1600
4.  Jurgen Melzer +1600
5.  Feliciano Lopez +2500

Many are writing Federer off but with two apparent easy matches coming up, he just might be able to hit a groove and make a run.  Anything longer than +375 would be great to bet however -600 (1/6) with Fed, with the way he is looking on court, looks like the worst betting value I've ever seen in my life.

Federer came in at -50000 (1/500) to beat Falla in the first round and he, Fed, had to break serve to save his tournament life.

Whoever is pounding Federer's betting lines like it's 2006 needs to stop risking their entire bankroll on a ghost for measly possible returns.  He's not as good as he was at this time last year and the betting odds on Berdych, Lopez, and Melzer are great.

He's not a write-off by any means but his odds are pure garbage.

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