Rafael Nadal is in trouble if he wants to hang on to top spot on the ATP Tour. Djokovic needs but to make the final to guarantee his rise.
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Rafael Nadal, the reigning Wimbledon champion, is the current world number one on the men's tour. What exactly his ranking will be following Wimbledon is not known at this point with first, second, and even third all possibilities.
Most, even Nadal supporters, might say "second" as Rafa could win the title outright at the All England Club and still lose top spot. Novak Djokovic, the current world number two, on the other hand does not need to win the title at Wimbledon at all to become number one, rather the Serbian only needs to make the final to guarantee his rise to the top of the tennis world.
It might seem odd to some to see Nadal win the title, Djokovic lose in the final and then see Djokovic surpass Nadal in the rankings however the ATP Rankings employ a 52 week roll-over system. The results from Wimbledon 2011 are definitely huge but when it comes to players turning a net gain, net loss, or breaking even in terms of ranking points, the Wimbledon 2011 results are relative to the results from last year's event.
That puts all the pressure on Nadal as he won last season and can, at best, only duplicate his result for a net gain of zero ranking points come update time. Djokovic, a loser in last year's semifinal, can turn a significant net gain just by making the championship match.
So close are Nadal and Djokovic in the rankings that any outcome that sees the Serb turn a net gain relative to Nadal would flip-flop first and second in the rankings.
There are even some scenarios where Nadal drops down to third although those scenarios involve an early exit for Rafa and a title for Federer, a double-outcome that has to be considered improbable. Those scenarios would see Fed jump up to world number two as opposed to world number one with Djokovic claiming top spot.
All of this is not likely to phase Nadal as he knows all he can do is plug along, play the player immediately in front of him, and let the rankings do what they do afterward.
However should Djokovic claim top spot it would be the first time since January 19th, 2004 that someone (Andy Roddick) besides Nadal or Federer was tops on tour. The stay on top could also be lengthy as Djokovic threatens to blister through the hard court season as the cement is his best surface.